Had GOP gotten too Southern?

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8360116

Nice summary of Senate results...

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/the_democratic_takeover_up_clo.html

Swing voters swing to Democrats...

Nice discussion of the swing of independents to the Democrats. Key question: Will it last? Or will be back to the 50/50 nation in 2008?

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1110/p01s01-uspo.html

Do the Democrats need the South?

Thomas Schaller says no:

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2006/11/14/no_south/print.html

How labor unions helped the Democrats

Maybe this was the Democrats' "secret weapon"?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/11/us/politics/11labor.html?ei=5090&en=23f9fbe88718cf8a&ex=1320901200&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print

Very interesting article on renewed party strength...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/18/opinion/18rohde.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

More myth busting...

http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=M2UwMjlhNjY1ZTMwNzc5OWM1ZDQ5YTIwOGJiZDM5MDg=

Five myths about the midterms...

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1560212,00.html

Great exit poll data here

Could be useful for your papers:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_11/010211.php

A Voter Rebuke For Bush, the War And the Right

The political pendulum in American politics swung away from the right yesterday, putting an end to the 12-year Republican Revolution on Capitol Hill and delivering a sharp rebuke of President Bush and the Iraq war.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/07/AR2006110701697.html


Republicans' Angry Factions Point Fingers At Each Other

After minutes upon minutes of soul-searching, Republicans are now in recrimination mode. And the GOP's various factions all agree: This wouldn't have happened if the party had listened to us


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110802581.html


Democrats Blunted GOP Edge in Key Blocs

Democrats won big in Tuesday's election by undoing GOP gains among groups President Bush once envisioned as essential ingredients of a durable, conservative governing majority in Washington: Catholics, married mothers and Latinos.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110802334.html

House Roundup: Democrats Win Majority Rule With Ease

Democrats easily clinched a majority of House seats in Tuesday’s House elections, overturning the GOP majority that had been in place for a dozen years.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/house_roundup_democrats_jump_a.html

Senate Roundup: Democrats Hit A Snag on the Way to a Majority

Democrats nearly won control of the Senate Tuesday night after combining upset victories in Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island, and a potential fifth pick-up in Montana, with no losses in Democrat-held seats.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/senate_roundup_casey_brown_giv.html

Governors Roundup: Democrats Sweep Up State Houses Nationwide

Democrats made solid gains in governorships across the country, taking Republican posts in Colorado, Arkansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio and retaining every seat they held in 14 states.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/governors_roundup_democrats_ga.html

No Matter Which Party Prevails, the Election Will Transform the Senate

In a time of political upheaval, the new Senate will undoubtedly become the graveyard for each party’s big ideas.
With Democrat John Tester’s narrow win over Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in Montana, control of the Senate hinges on a recount in Virginia, where Democrat James Webb leads Sen. George Allen by approximately 8,000 votes.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/no_matter_which_party_prevails.html

Democrats’ Takeover in House Transforms Washington Overnight
Voters across the country dispatched Republican lawmakers Tuesday in favor of Democrats, ending four years of total GOP control in Congress and giving voice to a party that has challenged President Bush’s leadership of the war in Iraq.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/democrats_takeover_in_house_tr.html

another voter guide for election night

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-election-night-viewer-guide.html

More new polls cast doubt on GOP surge hypothesis

See the discussion here:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/010859.php

I guess anything could happen!

On the other hand...

This latest Fox News poll still shows lots of Republican problems...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,227707,00.html

Election Night viewing guide

This article will give you a good idea of what to look for on election night:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/election_night_bellwether_watc.html

Dick Morris predicts disaster for GOP

November 6, 2006 -- THE latest polls portend disaster for the Republican Party
tomorrow. The House appears to be gone; the Senate is teetering on the brink.

See here: http://www.nypost.com/seven/11062006/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_gop_massacre__a_bloody_tuesday_opedcolumnists_dick_morris__eileen_mcgann.htm


However, some polls see cause for GOP optimism. See here: http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=295

Parties Crank Up Voter Turnout EffortsAmid the Last-Minute Blitz, Some Polls Hold Positive Signs for Republicans

Republicans seized on signs of movement in their direction yesterday as they unleashed a massive election-eve voter mobilization operation in an effort to stave off potentially substantial losses in the House and preserve at least a slender majority in the Senate.

Democrats answered the Republicans' get-out-the-vote machinery with intensified efforts to contact infrequent and still-undecided voters in a handful of tight Senate races as well as in more than two dozen GOP-held House districts where races were too close to call.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/05/AR2006110501075.html

Ohio Roundup: Will Cincinnati Give GOP a Chilly Reception?

As Election Day nears, CQPolitics.com is providing roundups of the key races in individual states, highlighting major developments in the contests. The following is an update of two House general election contests in Ohio.
The roundup includes ratings changes in both races, in Ohio’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts, both of which have been moved to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.
The Republican incumbents in those districts, Steve Chabot in the 1st and Jean Schmidt in the 2nd, appeared to hold substantial leads over their opponents just a few weeks ago.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/11/ohio_roundup_will_cincinnati_g.html

Congressional Quarterly also has a very simple and concise list of projections and maps for each state and congressional district, just follow this link:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/06map.html

Want a House Seat? You’ll Have to Raise $1 Million... at Least

[This article discusses some of the topics on campaign financing discussed today, it also has a link to the amounts of money collected and spent by candidates]

CQPolitics.com has updated its signature chart on fundraising in the year’s key House races, to reflect the candidate’s pre-election filings showing receipts, spending and cash on hand as of Oct. 18. The data were culled from reports recently filed the Federal Election Commission and analyzed by CQPolitics.com senior writer Greg Giroux.....
The national political parties have weighed in with “independent expenditure” spending in dozens of districts, as have some outside political action committees, including so-called “527” organizations that accept large contributions and file paperwork with the IRS.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/want_a_house_seat_youll_have_t.html

Good summary of House/Senate races

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/special_report_the_battering_r_1.html

CQ Weekly has released its final special report before the 2006 midterm
elections, complete with analysis of every competitive race in the country by
the staff of CQPolitics.com.

This final overview of the political landscape finds the Nov. 7
elections shaping up as a collision between the Republican Party's fundraising
and voter turnout proficiency with an ever-expanding field of competitive seats
and a consistent decline in the GOPs support among voters on issues across the
board. The result is a Congress up for grabs, and an energized Democratic Party
trying hard not to seem overconfident.

The story package also presents a
breakdown of competitive Senate contests, regional breakdowns on the battle for
control of the House and a summary of the electoral "signposts" CQ analyzes in
making its projections.

Demo gains expected in Northeast

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/2850/

Whatever the magnitude of the coming changes, two things are certain: The
Democrats are going to gain seats in the 2006 midterms, and those gains will
come from outside the South.

A Republican in Trouble in Indiana

Incumbent John Hostettler has solid conservative credentials, and he voted against the Iraq war. A recipe for reelection? Think again

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1551842,00.html

Barone predicts 219 seats for Dems

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/061024/the_house_elect.htm

Do the Democrats need the South?

This authors says "no":

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/2850/

Absentee Voting May Help GOP Turn Out Conservative Base

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/absentee_voting_may_help_gop_t.html

Many states have loosened formerly restrictive requirements for absentee voting. And Republican officials, who have to pull out all the stops in what has turned into an exceedingly difficult election year for their party, are increasingly emphasizing early absentee voting to try to draw a commitment from their conservative voting base.
The GOP effort comes at a time when a number of Republican activists are expressing worry about a lack of enthusiasm among conservative supporters that could sink Republican incumbents in close races around the country.

GOP Aims to Scare Up Big Voter Turnout: With House Losses Likely, Tactics Focus on Warnings About Democrats

With top Republican strategists now privately predicting substantial House losses, President Bush and top GOP officials plan to spend the final days of the 2006 campaign attempting to rally partisans and limit conservative defections with dire warnings abo
ut the consequences of a Democratic Congress.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101901906.html?referrer=email&referrer=email&referrer=email

How Republicans Hope to Hold the Senate

Republican officials are trying to project confidence about keeping the Senate by spending heavily, and forcing Democrats to do the same, in blue states like Michigan, Maryland and New Jersey. But: Florida in 2000. Ohio in '04. Virginia in '06?

Strategists in both parties tell TIME that they now believe control of the Senate could turn on a race that wasn't on anyone's toss-up list two months ago -- the Democratic challenge by former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) to Senator George Allen, a once-popular Republican who has suffered an epidemic of self-inflicted wounds.

http://time-blog.com/allen_report/

Dick Morris gives up on the GOP

http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/DickMorris/101806.html

There goes the GOP base — and probably both houses. The Republican base, that
vaunted entity whose every mood swing has controlled the zigs and zags of the
Bush administration policy, has moved out, according to the latest Gallup
polling. Karl Rove’s heroic efforts to reserve its fealty have failed to move
Republican base voters. Karl cannot compensate for Bush’s failure to project his
issues as the midterm disaster for the Republican Party nears. The Gallup poll
of Oct. 6-8 shows that, in the wake of the Foley scandal, the number of
“white requent churchgoers” who are planning to vote Republican has
dropped from 58 percent to 47 percent since last month. The margin of their
support for Republicans over Democrats, 26 percentage points in September, has
entirely disappeared and the parties are tied among this core element of the
Republican base.

GOP Giving Up on NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds, Too

We already knew things were looking down for Tom Reynolds, the GOP Congressman from New York's 26th district who currently serves as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Following reports that Reynolds knew of allegations that Mark Foley had made inappropriate advances on pages and former pages yet neglected to do anything about it, Reynolds released a disastrous television ad that likely only added fuel to the fire. Two recent polls, one from Zogby the other from RT Strategies, show Reynolds trailing his Democratic challenger, Jack Davis, by margins fo 15 points and 16 points, respectively. And just last week, Reynolds no-showed on ABC's "This Week", a move that hardly instilled confidence. Now, Bob Novak (note the source and grab the appropriate grain of salt) is reporting that key Republicans are now effectively writing off Reynolds' chances at reelection.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/16/0464/3371 

Homes Raided In Rep. Weldon Influence Probe

Federal agents raided the homes of Rep. Curt Weldon's daughter and one of his closest political supporters yesterday as part of an investigation into whether the veteran Republican congressman used his influence to benefit himself and his daughter's lobbying firm, according to sources familiar with the investigation.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/16/AR2006101600545_pf.html

Campaign '06: No Politics Is Local in Ohio

Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce faces an uphill battle in her bellwether midwestern district, a clear sign that this is a very different kind of midterm election.http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1546415,00.html

Interesting comparison with 1994

original CQ article published in October 1994:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/1994_flashback_gops_field_of_d.html

Bush/Rove still optimistic...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/14/AR2006101401051_pf.html

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term.

GOP Redirects money from faltering races

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101201881.html


Faced with a deteriorating political climate, Republican Party officials are hoping to keep control of the House and Senate with a strategy aimed at shoring up enough endangered incumbents to preserve their majorities, while scaling back planned spending on races that now appear unwinnable.

In recent days, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has given back television time it had reserved in Democratic-held districts in West Virginia, South Carolina and Ohio -- apparently concluding that those races are beyond reach unless something dramatic changes the national political environment in the 25 days before the Nov. 7 election.

more debate on mobilization effects

author notes how hard it is to measure them...

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/10/will_gop_mobilizaiton_make_a_d.html

On the Attack in Illinois

Retired politicians frequently return to the campaign trail on behalf of grateful candidates seeking an electoral boost. But former Illinois Governor George Ryan has become the focus of that state's current gubernatorial race in a quite different way. Both Democrat incumbent Governor Rod Blagojevich and GOP challenger Judy Baar Topinka, the three-term state treasurer, are scrambling to show that their opponent most closely resembles the disgraced one-term Republican now facing six and a half years in federal prison for corruption and fraud.


http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1544100,00.html

more on GOP micro-targeting

This is a very interesting account, similar to what our visitor was talking about:

http://billbradley.pajamasmedia.com/2006/10/10/schwarzeneggers_secret_weapon.php

But this political scientist says that the GOP GOTV in Ohio in 2004 was not so effective after all:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001542.php

I have my doubts that the micro-targeting is nearly as important as its advocates say. S. is a strong candidate, and Angelides is lame. Might that be far more important? And if micro-targeting is all you need, then why did the GOP do so poorly in California in 2004?

Count me a bit skeptical on this one.

A useful discussion of micro and macro aspects...

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/showdown06/archives/individual/2006_10/009687.php#more

Hastert Tells Conservative His Resignation Would Not Aid GOP

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/hastert_tells_conservative_hel.html
House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., told a leading conservative Wednesday that he would resign as the top congressional leader if it would help the Republican Party stave off defeat in November.

But conservative activist Paul Weyrich said Hastert has rejected calls for his resignation because he believes it would prompt “a feeding frenzy” that ultimately would lead to the downfall of other GOP leaders as well.

Sex, war and US votes

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/da053e08-540d-11db-8a2a-0000779e2340.html

There are two competing theories to explain why the Republicans triumphed in 2004: voters chose them either because of their values, or because they were tough on terrorism.

On both those fronts, the Republican party is now in trouble. Only weeks before midterm elections that were already looking tough for the party of President George W. Bush, the Republicans are facing a salacious Congressional sex scandal that could undermine their party's appeal to "values voters", and credible allegations - from no less than Bob Woodward, the doyen of American investigative reporting - that they could have prevented the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks but were too incompetent to do so.

Good article on Howard Dean's plans

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/01/magazine/01dean.html?pagewanted=1

How he's trying to build up the state parties by sending in DNC organizers...

Is GOP GOTV actually not so great after all?

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001542.php

An interesting critique of the conventional wisdom:

Abramowitz:

One of the most difficult things to accomplish in a GOTV campaign is to mobilize
your own party’s supporters without also mobilizing the opposing party’s
supporters. Not only did Democrats do a better job of turning out their own
voters in Ohio, but they also did a better job of not turning out opposition
voters. Based on the actual turnout data, it appears that the GOP’s vaunted
72-hour program was actually less effective than the Democratic Party’s GOTV
effort in Ohio. On November 7th, that Republican ace-in-the-hole may turn out to
be a joker.

Time on how GOP is still strong...

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1541295,00.html

The polls keep suggesting that Republicans could be in for a historic
drubbing. And their usual advantage--competence on national security--is
constantly being challenged by new revelations about bungling in Iraq. But top
Republican officials maintain an eerie, Zen-like calm. They insist that the
prospects for their congressional candidates in November's midterms have never
been as bad as advertised and are getting better by the day. Those are party
operatives and political savants whose job it is to anticipate trouble. But much
of the time they seem so placid, you wonder whether they know
something.

They do. What they know is that just six days after George W.
Bush won re-election in 2004, his political machine launched a sophisticated,
expensive and largely unnoticed campaign aimed at maintaining G.O.P. majorities
in the House and Senate. If that campaign succeeds, it would defy history and
political gravity, both of which ordain that midterm elections are bad news for
a lame-duck President's party, especially when the lame duck has low approval
ratings. As always, a key part of the campaign involves money--the national
Republican Party is dumping at least three times as much into key states as its
Democratic counterpart is--but money is only the start. "Panic results when
you're surprised," says Republican National Committee (R.N.C.) chairman Ken
Mehlman. "We've been preparing for the toughest election in at least a
decade."

Thanks to aggressive redistricting in the 1990s and early 2000s,
fewer than three dozen House seats are seriously in contention this election
cycle, compared with more than 100 in 1994, the year Republicans swept to power
with a 54-seat pickup in the House. Then there's what political pros call the
ground game. For most of the 20th century, turning out voters on Election Day
was the Democrats' strength. They had labor unions to supply workers for
campaigns, make sure their voters had time off from their jobs to go to the
polls and provide rides to get them there.

Was there a Dreier "push poll"?

This is interesting, but speculative:

http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/sethinca/2006/06/09/40k-push-poll/#comments

A Base Discussion On GOP Troubles

Tonight on Hardball, Club for Growth president Pat Toomey and Family Research Council president Tony Perkins discussed the two areas in which the GOP is tanking — fiscal and social policy.

Toomey pointed out that while social conservatives have gotten two conservative Supreme Court justices, budget hawks have gotten bupkis. Perkins, on the other hand, argued that the social conservatives are the most crucial part of the base in getting out the vote.

http://media.nationalreview.com/

Democrats call Zarqawi killing a stunt

Some Democrats, breaking ranks from their leadership, today said the death of terrorist leader Abu Musab Zarqawi in Iraq was a stunt to divert attention from an unpopular and hopeless war. "This is just to cover Bush's [rear] so he doesn't have to answer" for Iraqi civilians being killed by the U.S. military and his own sagging poll numbers, said Rep. Pete Stark, California Democrat. "Iraq is still a mess -- get out."


http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20060608-041042-9038r.htm

More post-mortems on Warner...

For you die-hards, here are some interesting discussions of the results in the 26th:

http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/sethinca/2006/06/08/ca-26-an-election-day-mystery/#comments

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/6/8/215059/6431

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/8/215419/5072

One of the comments:

He left most of his campaign money on the table and never ran a professional campaign. He had relatives as managers, I'm told. I know my calls to his recording machine, as his campaign office, were unanswered early in the campaign.
Since he self funded 157K and left 120K in the account there's some rationale if you've given up winning. But there's NO rationale if you really mean to win. 120K in that District could have done some real name ID activities.
It could have been done. He just needed some pro's to help run against one of the most powerful men in Congress.
Cynthis Matthews had the name ID from the last race.
Let's get behind Matthews.
Warner et. al. blew it.

Another:

I think there is a simpler explanation.
Name recognition of Cynthia Matthews over Warner.
Warner played it waaaay too under the radar, did not do nearly enough campaigning, in spite of the Wes Clark appearance.
Yes on inexperienced campaign staff. Absolutely.

Another (which refers to this ridiculous posting: http://www.warnerforcongress.com/inthenews.php?id=12):

The line about “exit polls” is laughable. The work and expense of conducting a credible, scientific exit poll is significant. No one is doing an exit poll in a Democratic challenger primary anywhere in the country. This, to me, is representative of the downfall of the Warner campaign. They were playing politics like you see in movies like “The Candidate” or “Primary Colors” instead of running a sound Voter ID and turnout program.
It’s a shame. Warner was the kind of candidate who could have had a chance to win. Matthews, now that Drier has to pay attention, won’t break 40%.

Good discussion of the race in the 50th CD

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/06/closing_the_books_on_ca_50.html

Today, pundits and partisans across the land are examining the returns to
divine some kind of meaning from them. What did the voters tell us? Many answers
will be offered - not all of them valid. Many people will see this result as
being the product of national forces - the extent to which immigration,
congressional corruption, and Bush's low numbers are mixing with one another
outside of DC. However, scholarly research calls for skepticism on that front.
The evidence is that demographics, candidate quality, campaign spending, and
district partisanship are the main determinants of special elections; national
forces have not historically been a factor.

Quick note about Cynthia Matthews victory...

Don't feel obligated to change your papers that were written assuming a Warner victory. From an educational standpoint, the exercise is still useful (even if Warner is not going to be the actual nominee).

As for why this happened, we'll have to talk about this in class briefly on Thursday, before the final.

Surprises are always fun in politics.

Keeps it interesting.

-Prof. Dark

But Can He Steal Democratic Votes?

If you've heard of Michael Steele, the Maryland lieutenant governor, chances are you know he's a Republican, a conservative, and an African American--the target of repeated "Uncle Tom" barbs tossed his way by black Democrats.

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Protected/Articles/000/000/012/213emvtm.asp?pg=1

How to Lose the House

PRESIDENT BUSH AND REPUBLICANS are staring political disaster in the face on immigration. The problem isn't that they might enact a bill allowing illegal immigrants living in America to earn their way to citizenship, inviting foreign workers to come here, and beefing up security on the 2,000-mile border with Mexico. No, it would be a disaster for Republicans if they didn't pass such a bill.

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/243faftw.asp

Meatheadgate

YOU CAN NEVER BE TOO rich or too thin, the saying goes, and it certainly holds true for California's June 6 primary. State Controller Steve Westly, a former eBay executive and Democratic candidate for governor, has spent $34.5 million of his own fortune in hopes of earning the right to face Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger this fall. The other Democrat in the race, State Treasurer Phil Angelides, would certainly be out of the running by now but for a wealthy friend who spent $6 million on an "independent" expenditure to prop up his flagging campaign. As for the Governator, he's not exactly living on K rations: According to the Los Angeles Times, Team Arnold has spent nearly $145 million (including $25 million of Schwarzenegger's own money) on various campaigns over the past five years.

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Protected/Articles/000/000/012/271ycgan.asp

With this Bill . . .

JUNE 6, 2006, is an important date, not only because it's the 62nd anniversary of D-Day. It's also the day the Senate will vote on the so-called marriage amendment, which would amend the Constitution to restrict marriage in America to a man and a woman.

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/268oorcp.asp

Unexpected Benefit

IT'S BEEN ABOUT THREE WEEKS since the sign-up phase of the new Medicare prescription drug benefit ended on May 15, and the program's supporters have earned some bragging rights. Even with its early success and growing popularity, some key elements of Medicare reform have received little attention, and these less understood dimensions may have a larger-than-expected positive impact on American healthcare in the years ahead.

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/284fbndm.asp

Warner is losing???!!! Election night update (10:45pm)

U.S. Congress District 26 6.3% ( 26 of 415 ) precincts reporting as of Jun 6, 2006 at 10:37 pm
Districtwide Returns

Candidate Votes Percent

Democratic

Cynthia Rodriguez Matthews 2,368 44.0
Russ Warner 2,040 37.9
Hoyt Hilsman 980 18.1

Republican

Melvin C. (Mel) Milton 625 6.3
Sonny Sardo 2,332 23.9
* David Dreier 6,817 69.8

A look at Tuesday's primaries in 8 states

http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/politics/story/3304153p-12173951c.html

Dan Walters: Legislature's female ranks may shrink in this year's elections

The state Legislature, once a nearly all-male political bastion, experienced gender integration during the 1990s, thanks to term limits that opened up dozens of seats to newcomers, court-ordered redistricting that reduced incumbents' advantage and a "year of the woman" drive.
From a handful, the ranks of women quickly expanded to nearly a third of the 120-member Legislature and they made their presence known on issues -- albeit not without some intergender friction, such as a conflict over the rules governing alimony.
Matters reached a flash point in 2001, when the Legislature drew new legislative districts as part of a bipartisan deal and it became apparent that the all-male team of negotiators had created state Senate districts that effectively blocked the senatorial ambitions of several female Assembly members.
"Whether it was intentional or not, there are more women who stand to lose under the proposed Senate plan," Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, D-Santa Barbara, one of those effectively barred from the Senate, complained.
With resentment over redistricting still simmering, gender conflict flared as the 2001 session drew to a close. The Assembly's male leadership pointedly sidetracked a couple of female-authored bills as a gesture toward the business community, and Assemblyman Rod Wright, D-Los Angeles, uttered some fighting words in accusing Sen. Jackie Speier, D-Hillsborough, of reneging on a promise to amend a bill. "It's a terrible bill and it was dishonestly moved," a very angry Wright declared, adding, "This woman utterly disregarded the process. … She believes it is not necessary to have any consideration about honor."
Wright had been the author of the alimony overhaul legislation that was enacted one year and then repealed the next at the behest of women's groups, and his "this woman" remark sparked a brief but very sharp gender war that ended only when Wright publicly apologized.
Ever since the Wright blowup, gender relations in the Capitol have been fairly cordial, women have made some inroads into leadership positions and four female legislators are seeking statewide office this year, albeit by running against each other.
Speier and Sen. Liz Figueroa, D-Sunol, are seeking the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor (with Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi the third Democrat) while Sens. Debra Bowen of Marina Del Rey and Deborah Ortiz of Sacramento vie for the Democratic nomination for secretary of state.
All of that notwithstanding, the 1991 redistricting deal that aced at least three women out of Senate seats could have a telling effect this year. The California Elected Women's Association has calculated that with six of the Senate's 12 women being forced out of the Legislature by term limits and 13 women running in primaries for the 20 Senate seats up this year, a best-case scenario is that the ranks of female senators will remain unchanged while at worst, the 12 female-held seats could drop to seven.
There are 25 women in the 80-member Assembly, and 11 are being forced out by term limits. There are 78 women running for the Assembly in the primary, 31 percent of the 250 Assembly candidates, and the Elected Women's Association calculates that its optimum outcome would be a gain of four women, two Democrats and two Republicans, while the downside potential ranges to a loss of four female-held seats.
Continuing a recent trend, three women seeking Assembly seats office this year are the spouses of retiring male legislators. But it's not a one-way street; Assemblywoman Judy Chu, D-Monterey Park, is being forced out of the Legislature by term limits and her husband, Mike Eng, is seeking her Assembly seat.
Rachel Otte Michelin, the executive director of the Elected Women's Association, says she's concerned that the ranks of female legislators have peaked. She notes that of 308 legislative candidates on the primary ballot, just 91 are women and the pool will shrink as fewer women seek and win local offices that are steppingstones to the Legislature.
"With the largest number of women being termed out of the Legislature in decades, it is crucial that there should be a farm team of women," she said in a recent letter to supporters.

Bush Approval Rating Shows Modest Improvement

The latest USA Today/Gallup update on George W. Bush's presidential job approval rating finds 36% of Americans approving of the job Bush is doing, while 57% disapprove.

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=23212

All eyes on California-50

After today’s vote, the NRCC will have spent $5 million on the race. Over the weekend, the Republican National Committee (RNC) paid to send approximately 160 “deployed volunteers” to San Diego to help the Bilbray campaign turn out supporters, an RNC official said. An estimated 65 of those volunteers, working 10- to 12-hour days making phone calls and knocking on doors, are Republican staff members on Capitol Hill.

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/060606/news1.html

http://www.cagle.com/news/Voters/1.asp

CA 51: Filner, So Far, Winning Fight for Latino Voting Bloc

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/06/ca_51_filner_so_far_winning_fi.html
California’s 51st Congressional District traverses the state’s entire border with Mexico. Yet immigration — though a pressing issue in the San Diego area that provides most of the district’s residents and the Imperial Valley farmlands to the east — is one of the few points not sparking contention in the campaign for Tuesday’s Democratic House primary between seven-term incumbent Bob Filner, and two challengers, state Rep. Juan Vargas and businessman Danny Ramirez.
Hispanics, many of them recent arrivals to California, make up just more than half of the 51st District’s population. So while many Americans favor building a tall wall to slow the influx of illegal immigrants, not many of them live in the California district that would be most affected.
“Someone who takes a hard line on immigration is likely to lose support,” said Gary C. Jacobson, professor of political science at University of California, San Diego. “They can’t really distinguish themselves on it. It is a decisive issue. If you bring it up, you’re going to make people unhappy.”
The demographics of the 51st District are, however, at the very heart of the primary challenge to Filner. Primary voters are being asked — and not for the first time — whether Filner’s good relations with his Hispanic constituency and strongly liberal voting record justifies his re-election, or if the fact that Filner is a non-Hispanic white makes him an impediment to Latino empowerment.

How the FBI Brought the Two Parties Together

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1197624,00.html

How the FBI Brought the Two Parties Together
The raid on the offices of accused Congressman William Jefferson has finally given Democrats and Republicans something to agree on — that the Administration has gone too far

Something strange is happening on Capitol Hill this week. Faced with a choice between attacking an allegedly corrupt Democratic Congressman or criticizing George W. Bush for expanding presidential power, Republican lawmakers chose the latter.
With the Democrats declaring this year's mid-term elections a referendum on Republican corruption, you would have expected a full-scale Republican counterattack against Louisiana Democrat William Jefferson after the FBI raided his offices Saturday night. But instead, the latest developments in the unfolding Jefferson saga have brought the two parties together for once, with both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress agreeing on one thing: FBI raids on their offices are bad and dangerous things.
Top lawmakers from both parties in the House and Senate argued the raids on Jefferson's offices are a potential violation of separation of powers clauses in the Constitution. The top Democrat in the House, Minority leader Nancy Pelosi, said soberly, "Justice Department investigations must be conducted in accordance with Constitutional protections and historical precedent so that our government's system of checks and balances are not undermined." Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert was not so restrained. He called the raid "deeply troubling," and said all legislative documents should be privileged against such searches to "prevent overreaching and abuse of power by the Executive Branch." .............

Congress Takes On the Feds

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1198907,00.html
Congress Takes On the FedsBy PERRY BACON JR.

The battle between the FBI and Congress over documents seized in a raid on the office of Congressman William Jefferson, a Democrat from New Orleans, turned Washington upside down last week. The FBI, which has long been investigating allegations that Jefferson accepted money in exchange for helping businessmen secure deals in Africa, says it had already found $90,000 wrapped in foil in the freezer of Jefferson's apartment and had a videotape of him allegedly accepting $100,000 in bribe money. But when federal agents, who had been trying to get documents from Jefferson for nine months, obtained a warrant and searched his Capitol Hill office, they found an unlikely adversary: House Speaker Dennis Hastert. The Illinois Republican argued that the search violated the separation of powers between the Legislative and Executive branches and demanded that the FBI return the seized documents.
Hastert grew even angrier when ABC News, quoting unnamed federal law-enforcement officials, reported that Hastert was being investigated in another corruption case, involving lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The Justice Department denied the story, but Hastert, suspicious of the report's timing, accused the FBI of trying to "intimidate" him. ...............

New analysis of race in the 59th

It's still hard to imagine the Democrats winning this, given the GOP voter registration advantage. If Busby does win, that will be the most reliable sign yet that the GOP is in big trouble in November. If Busby only gets about 44% (what Democrats have gotten in the past), I think this would be a good sign that the Democrats are unlikely to gain a majority in the House.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/ca_50_is_gops_bilbray_running.html

Tuesday’s special election to replace convicted Republican Rep. Randy “Duke”
Cunningham in California’s 50th District is still too close to call — and
Republican nominee Brian P. Bilbray, a practiced surfer in the waters off San
Diego, may feel as though he has strayed into a political rip
current.

Bilbray, a former three-term House member (1995-2001), faces
tough opposition from Democratic educator Francine Busby, who in her first bid
for public office lost to Cunningham as the 2004 Democratic House nominee. Busby
is trying to apply the taint of Cunningham’s bribery conviction to Bilbray and
the House Republican majority in general, urging voters to elect a Democrat and
send a message that would be heard across the country.

Democrats Weigh Risks of Caution

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-dems31may31,1,5145210.story?coll=la-headlines-politics&ctrack=1&cset=true

Investigation??

IVESTI-GATE....Republicans are already raising money from their true-believer base by warning them that a Democratic victory in November will mean nothing but endless investigations of the president. The mainstream press has picked up on this theme too. So does that mean Democrats should avoid the subject for fear of looking hyperpartisan? I think Zack Roth gets the answer right in "Investi-Gate," in the June issue of the Monthly:

Democrats might wish they could avoid talking about their investigative plans. But if they do, the press and the GOP will raise the issue for them, and they'll frame it around the prospect of impeachment. So Democrats might as well meet the challenge head on, and spend the summer making their case. Of course we'll vigorously investigate the administration if we win, they should say. And we'll do so the same way previous Democratic Congresses have investigated GOP presidents: shoulder-to-shoulder with honest Republican lawmakers willing to put country before party. The fact that the current GOP leadership chose to abandon the great American tradition of bipartisan Congressional oversight is no reason Democrats have to follow suit. Instead, they should embrace that tradition, with the faith that if they do, the president will get the legacy he deserves.

Read the whole thing. Done right, a promise of oversight can be a powerful campaign issue. Done timidly, though, it's a sure loser.

—Kevin Drum 1:45 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (97)

More splits in House GOP ranks

And the GOP continues to fall to pieces...


www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/053106/news4.html

Courting the base could lose election

Good article:

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/Pollsters/DavidHill/053106.html

The crumbling GOP base

Incredible condemnation of Bush and the GOP by a fellow Republican...

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/05/31/the_crumbling_gop_base/

Dreier opposition to Bill that offers benefits to Illegal Immigrants

Dreier Statement on Passage of Senate Immigration Bill
May 25, 2006
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, issued the following statement today in reaction to passage of the Senate immigration reform bill:
"I am opposed to the legislation approved by the Senate today. Because it would allow illegal immigrants to secure Social Security benefits earned illegally, because it does not include a strong enough employment eligibility verification system, which I have advocated, and because it lacks the strength of the border security initiatives included in the House-passed bill, I would not have supported the Senate package. However, now that the Senate has acted, we need to get to work on finding a solution to the pressing problem of illegal immigration. I believe we can do better than the Senate bill.
"As the process moves forward, I will stand with my House colleagues as we pursue strong border security first, and responsible immigration reform second."
http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr5252006.htm

I say slander, you say accurate

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/052506.html

Warner Endorsed by National Education Association & LA County Firefighters

Congressional candidate endorsed

RANCHO CUCAMONGA - The National Education Assocation and the Los Angeles County Firefighters have both endorsed Democrat Russ Warner in the 26th Congressional District primary.
Warner, a businessman from Rancho Cucamonga, is one of three Democrats vying for the party's nomination. He will face author and educator Hoyt Hilsman of San Marino and Cynthia Rodriguez Matthews, a natural resources manager from La Verne.
The congressional seat is held by Rep. David Dreier, R-Glendora. He is facing a Republican primary challenge.
- From staff and wire reports

http://www.sgvtribune.com/search/ci_3862366

Dreier a strong voice for Valley

San Gabriel Valley Tribune Endorsement of Dreier:

WE endorse Rep. David Dreier, R-Glendora, in the 26th Congressional District Republican primary election on June 6.
Dreier is not only the longest-serving San Gabriel Valley congressman, he is also the most powerful - as chairman of the House Rules Committee and a member of the Republican leadership team - and the most effective. His main opponent for the Republican nomination, Sonny Sardo of Shadow Hills, faults Dreier for his globalist tendencies and his work on free-trade agreements. Sardo's campaign is based largely on Dreier's purported weak record on illegal immigration - the congressman was slammed mercilessly on that count two years ago by a couple of talk-radio hosts - but Dreier's stands on the issue do not appear that weak to us.
Dreier voted for House Resolution 4437, the enforcement-and-security bill that would criminalize being in the country illegally, build about 700 miles of fencing along the Mexican border and impose sanctions on employers who hire illegal workers. Dreier introduced HR 98, which would create a counterfeit-proof Social Security ID card that workers would have to present to employers before being hired. Dreier authored legislation, paralleled in the Senate by Sen. Dianne Feinstein's bill, to crack down on those who build tunnels under the U.S. border. And he was first to call for congressional hearings after our reporter, Sara A. Carter, reported
early this year on Homeland Security documents revealing 216 incursions by Mexican military personnel into the United States since 1996.
He authored an amendment to increase by $50 million federal funding to reimburse states and counties for the costs of jailing criminal illegal immigrants.
Dreier has been a strong voice for San Gabriel Valley transportation issues. When cities along the Gold Line foothill extension were threatening their own effort by fighting among themselves, Dreier made a special trip to the district to settle them down and get them to speak for the project with a single voice. Dreier helped secure $167 million for ACE work, primarily for overpasses and underpasses where roads intersect rail lines, in last year's highway and transportation bill.
Dreier led the House ethics reform move this year. Several of his bolder proposals were watered down or eliminated by his colleagues in the process, but the package that passed should make Congress run cleaner and with more transparency.
Republicans in the 26th Congressional District should vote for Dreier on June 6

http://www.sgvtribune.com/search/ci_3865342

Moderate Republicans Struggle to Hold On

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/wire/sns-ap-moderates-last-stand,1,1597428.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines

Talk of Pelosi as Speaker Delights Both Parties

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/30/washington/30pelosi.html?ei=5065&en=bb44dc6089c5b70f&ex=1149566400&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

House Lawmaker Balks at Immigration Bill

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13018892/

The Politics of Enron

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5613476/

Democrats Eye November Landslide

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/05/29/D8HTJP780.html

Another Misleading Republican Attack In California

http://www.factcheck.org/article389.html

Another Misleading Republican Attack In California

05.01.2006
An NRCC ad says Democrat Francine Busby "praised a teacher reported to have child porn," but fails to mention she voted to fire him.

More California Fact-Twisting

http://www.factcheck.org/article392.html

More California Fact-Twisting
A new wave of distortions via TV and mail in a "bleak" special House election.

Republicans aimed more distorted attacks at Democrat Francine Busby in the June 6 special House election to fill the seat vacated by convicted GOP congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, who resigned after pleading guilty to accepting bribes.
A National Republican Congressional Committee ad misleads viewers by saying Busby "could bring back the death tax," when in fact she has publicly supported permanent repeal of the federal estate tax for years, a fact known to Republican opposition researchers.
The NRCC also sent a glossy mailing comparing Busby to "irresponsible" and "dangerous" teenage drunk drivers. The GOP mailing repeats misrepresentations of her record as a school-board member. It says she praised a teacher accused of involvement in child pornography when in fact – as we have pointed out earlier – she had voted to fire the teacher and said she was "shocked" at his arrest.
A Democratic ad aimed at Republican candidate Brian Bilbray also misses the mark. It faults ex-congressman Bilbray for missing a vote in 1999 "to give California families an average tax cut of $700 dollars a year." The ad fails to mention that 95 per cent of House Democrats voted against the tax cut, and Democratic President Bill Clinton vetoed it.
The nasty tone of this special election was described as "bleak" by a Congressional Quarterly reporter. It may offer a preview of what's to come in dozens of close House elections in the Fall.

Pelosi Speaks

Nancy Pelosi met with the Prospect and discussed, among other things, what a Democratic House could look like.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=11562

Once again Dreier is working hard for his constituents

Dreier Votes To Fund Local Water Projects
May 25, 2006
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, voted last night to support local projects for a more reliable and cleaner water supply in the Foothills. H.R. 5427, the Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2007, includes funding for the San Gabriel Basin Water Restoration Fund and the Inland Empire Regional Water Recycling Project. H.R. 5427 was approved with bipartisan support 404-20. .
"As we continue to experience rapid growth in Southern California, the importance of a dependable and safe water supply cannot be understated. In many ways, the future of the Foothills sinks or swims on the issue of water. That is why I am very pleased that the House has continued to fund the San Gabriel Valley and Inland Empire water projects," said Dreier. "With this legislation, we have addressed a top local priority and held the line on spending. The energy and water bill spends less than last year, and we cut funding for programs that weren’t giving taxpayers a good return on their money."
The Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act contains $10 million in new funding for the San Gabriel Basin Restoration Fund. To date, Congress has provided $69.5 million to the Fund. The San Gabriel Basin Restoration Fund, which was created by legislation sponsored by Dreier in 1999, is administered cooperatively by the San Gabriel Basin Water Quality Authority and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Federal and non-federal monies contributed to the Fund are being used to design, construct, operate and maintain water projects to contain and treat the groundwater contamination in the San Gabriel and Central Groundwater Basins. The San Gabriel Groundwater Basin covers more than 160 square miles in Los Angeles County and is the primary source of drinking water for over 1.2 million people.
Additionally, the bill provides $1 million to two new water recycling projects in the Inland Empire. The projects will produce approximately 100,000 acre-feet of new water annually in one of the most rapidly growing regions in the United States. The House passed legislation authored by Dreier to authorize these projects in 2005.
"Using the latest technology to address our water issues is the right approach," said Dreier. "We are beginning to see real progress with these projects, and the federal support will keep them moving forward."
H.R. 5427 also increases funding for the Department of Energy, with an emphasis on safe nuclear energy and research for clean and cost-effective energy solutions through the American Competitiveness Initiative. "While House Republicans address short-term fixes to high energy prices, the real payoff will come from the foundation we are building for lasting solutions. This bill supports continued progress on clean coal power, more research on renewable fuels and improved conservation programs."
http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr052506.htm

Dreier Applauds End Of Long-Distance Phone Excise Tax

May 25, 2006
http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr05252006.htm
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, applauded an announcement today by the Department of the Treasury that the federal excise tax on long-distance phone service will be terminated.
"There’s an old saying that nothing is more permanent than a temporary tax, and the long-distance excise tax was a prime example," Dreier said. "This was originally a luxury tax levied in 1898 to fund the Spanish-American War. Over the ensuing 108 years, it became a punitive tax on all Americans with no purpose other than to fill government coffers. Every American who pays a long-distance phone bill will get relief. I applaud this decision, and, along with House Republicans, remain committed to reducing taxes so our economy continues to grow and American’s get to keep more of what they earn."
The Treasury estimates that refunds to businesses and taxpayers of the 3 percent tax will total $13 billion. Key Facts Regarding Tax Refunds: (courtesy of the Treasury Department)
No immediate action is required by taxpayers. Refunds will be a part of 2006 tax returns filed in 2007.
Refund claims will cover all excise tax paid on long-distance service over the last three years (time allowed given statute of limitations).
Interest will be paid on refunds.
The IRS is working on a simplified method for individuals to use to claim a refund on their 2006 tax returns.

Dreier Tough on Illegal Immigrants

Dreier Statement on Passage of Senate Immigration Bill
May 25, 2006
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, issued the following statement today in reaction to passage of the Senate immigration reform bill:
"I am opposed to the legislation approved by the Senate today. Because it would allow illegal immigrants to secure Social Security benefits earned illegally, because it does not include a strong enough employment eligibility verification system, which I have advocated, and because it lacks the strength of the border security initiatives included in the House-passed bill, I would not have supported the Senate package. However, now that the Senate has acted, we need to get to work on finding a solution to the pressing problem of illegal immigration. I believe we can do better than the Senate bill.
"As the process moves forward, I will stand with my House colleagues as we pursue strong border security first, and responsible immigration reform second."
http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr5252006.htm

Why Congressmen Are Such Easy Marks

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1193798,00.html
Why Congressmen Are Such Easy Marks
They may have power as a group, but their junior-varsity status can get them into trouble

Recent headlines about Congressional misadventures have, I think, given the public the wrong impression of what life is like for your average Representative. Despite the fat-cat stereotype, most members of Congress are relatively unknown and not very savvy. There are hordes of them. They act all important, but they're the interns of elected officialdom. As one staffer I know put it, "The President is one man — they're hundreds of people. If Congress wants the same kind of recognition, they're going to have to figure out how to somehow form one enormous person. Think Power Rangers, but times 100."
That's not what most people think, obviously. To judge by the antics of Representatives Cynthia McKinney, Patrick Kennedy, Katherine Harris and Duke Cunningham, being a member of Congress is a little like being James Bond, without the neat gadgets but also fewer bullets. Still: Car crashes! Fistfights! Luxury yachts, $2,800 dinners and wild card games! The prostitutes reportedly procured for Cunningham don't quite fit into the Bondian mold until you consider that at least Cunningham didn't pay for them himself. .....................

How The CIA Can Be Fixed

http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1194025,00.html

How The CIA Can Be FixedAs the Senate decides whether Michael Hayden should lead the agency, TIME asks CIA experts how to repair years of damage

Former CIA field officer and author of the spy thriller Blow the House Down
The CIA has been under political assault since the early 1970s. It was also badly managed, and the agency became an ungainly bureaucracy. It didn't just happen under George W.; it's been going on for decades. It got to the point where you could be an officer on the front between Afghanistan and Pakistan, living in a tent for three years, hunting down bin Laden, and there could be a logistics guy back at headquarters who takes his kids to soccer practice on Saturday mornings and gets promoted faster.
What is needed is to put back in place a professional cadre. The CIA may say they are bringing in great people. That may be true. But do these people know anything about intelligence? No. It's not something you learn with a master's in international relations. It takes years and years of assessing sources. Intelligence collection is a profession.
To rebuild the agency, you need to take an insider like Stephen Kappes [former deputy CIA director of operations] and put him in charge of management decisions. He's going to know, very simply, who the frauds are, who the good people are. He may have to bring in people who have retired and tell them, "I need you. Come back for three years." And you need to make sure that the good people are going to the hot spots. You have to stop sending everyone to Baghdad. After that? You have to have somebody implement a long-term program to take account of the way the world is changing--weapons proliferation, what kind of cover you need and what sort of security clearance you really need to work at the CIA. How do you hire a Pakistani Urdu speaker who immigrated here when he was 6 years old and get him through a security exam? Under the old rules, he's got too much baggage. .............

Will Nagin's Victory Make a Difference?

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1196529,00.html

Will Nagin's Victory Make a Difference?
With New Orleans still waiting for an infusion of federal cash and a rebuilding plan, the mercurial reelected mayor has his work cut out for him.

Even before the confetti had been swept away Saturday night, the New Orleans mayoral race was starting to look like it had been just an elaborate, expensive distraction from more pressing matters at hand. After months of debates, candidate forums and campaign advertisements, conditions in the hurricane-ravaged city are not much different from when the race began.
Less than half the city's population has returned. Congress is still debating when, or even if, it will unleash $4.2 billion in community development block grants allocated for the city's rebuilding. And the candidates Mayor Ray Nagin and Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu had largely managed to sidestep the most troublesome questions facing the city: whether it is realistic to rebuild New Orleans' entire pre-Hurricane Katrina footprint — a daunting prospect for a city hard-pressed to provide basic services for its drastically reduced populace — and how it will handle things if another major hurricane hit the city. Most important, Ray Nagin, whose political obituary had been all but written last fall, is still mayor, having coasted to victory over Landrieu in Saturday's runoff election. He did it with the overwhelming support of African-American voters, many of whom voted from exile or drove miles to cast ballots in polling places set up in still-desolate neighborhoods.
With a 52%-48% margin, Nagin, a pro-business Democrat who cobbled together enough conservative white support to give him the edge, cast himself as the underdog, a non- politician who had performed admirably under the unprecedented pressure of Katrina. Landrieu, who comes from a powerful Democratic political family (his sister is U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and his father was the city's last white mayor), ran a cautious campaign that was long on money but short on specifics. .....................

How the FBI Brought the Two Parties Together

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1197624,00.html

How the FBI Brought the Two Parties Together
The raid on the offices of accused Congressman William Jefferson has finally given Democrats and Republicans something to agree on — that the Administration has gone too far

Something strange is happening on Capitol Hill this week. Faced with a choice between attacking an allegedly corrupt Democratic Congressman or criticizing George W. Bush for expanding presidential power, Republican lawmakers chose the latter.
With the Democrats declaring this year's mid-term elections a referendum on Republican corruption, you would have expected a full-scale Republican counterattack against Louisiana Democrat William Jefferson after the FBI raided his offices Saturday night. But instead, the latest developments in the unfolding Jefferson saga have brought the two parties together for once, with both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress agreeing on one thing: FBI raids on their offices are bad and dangerous things.
Top lawmakers from both parties in the House and Senate argued the raids on Jefferson's offices are a potential violation of separation of powers clauses in the Constitution. The top Democrat in the House, Minority leader Nancy Pelosi, said soberly, "Justice Department investigations must be conducted in accordance with Constitutional protections and historical precedent so that our government's system of checks and balances are not undermined." Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert was not so restrained. He called the raid "deeply troubling," and said all legislative documents should be privileged against such searches to "prevent overreaching and abuse of power by the Executive Branch." ....................

Politicians Brave the internet

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=1988558

House: Thrifty Ways Keep DCCC at Parity With GOP Rival

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/house_thrifty_ways_keep_dccc_a.html

Despite a continued big advantage for the national Republican Party’s House campaign committee in overall fundraising, the Democrats’ House campaign unit entered May at near-parity in remaining cash reserves for the final six months of the campaign year.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) began the month with $22.8 million left to spend, according to their reports to the Federal Election Commission on financial activity through April 30.
This virtual tie came even though the Republicans raised more money than the Democrats in April — $4.2 million to $3 million — as they had in most previous months of the 2005-06 election cycle. That built the NRCC’s advantage in total receipts to $87.6 million versus $60.7 million for the DCCC.
The reason the Democrats are in a more competitive position in cash-on-hand is that they have been thriftier so far than the Republicans. The NRCC already had spent $68.0 million — more than the DCCC had raised — while the Democrats’ unit had spent $39.6 million.

Party recruiters lead charge for '06 vote

Choice of candidates to run in fall may decide who controls the House

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20060525/a_recruiting24.art.htm

Democrats should try appealing to more married voters

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0525/p09s01-coop.html

Cracks in Republican Unity

Party Infighting Mars Recent Success, And Could Erode Majority

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114852164473662603-drNZ_7j1GGE0_JM0l5lemY4Skug_20070524.html?mod=blogs

The CQPolitics Forum: Do the Democrats Really Have a Shot

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/the_cqpolitics_forum_do_the_de_1.html

With a bit more than five months to go before the Nov. 7 elections, do you currently think the Democrats will win the House — or the Senate — or both? Or do you think they still haven’t proved they can win enough seats to take over either chamber?

Party recruiters lead charge for '06 vote

www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-05-24-vote-recruiting_x.htm

WASHINGTON — Just two months after she lost a 2004 House race near Philadelphia by 2 percentage points, Lois Murphy got a call from the Democratic congressman in charge of 2006 races: Would she like to try again?

DCCC ‘much more aggressive’ in Sodrel rematch, Hill says

DCCC spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod said the race is “obviously one of our top priorities” and that she expects Democratic momentum to “easily flip of lot of those middle-of-the-road swing voters” in districts like Sodrel’s.

http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/052506/hill.html

Davis says GOP majority’s vulnerable

Republicans could lose control of the House if the current political climate continues, Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast yesterday.

http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/052506/davis.html

Spending millions in Calif.-50

The House GOP and Democratic fundraising arms continue to spend millions to fill the unexpired term of jailed former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif.).

On May 22, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported having spent $1.1 million on direct mail, phone calls, polling and issue ads to help former Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), according to records filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). On May 11, the committee reported spending more than $641,000.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $790,000 between May 14 and 20 on television advertising in California’s 50th Congressional District on behalf of Bilbray’s Democratic opponent, Francine Busby.

http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/052506/calif.html

New DLC report on future of Democratic Party

http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=173&contentid=253890

Slightly different than the Judis and Teixeira view...

Officials: Hastert "In the Mix" of Congressional Bribery Investigation

And slowly the GOP falls to pieces...

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2006/05/federal_officia.html

For Democrats, a Scandal of Their Own

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/23/washington/23dems.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all

WASHINGTON, May 22 — Democrats' plans to make Republican corruption a theme of their election strategy this year have been complicated by accusations of wrongdoing in their own ranks, leading the party to try on Monday to blunt the political effects of the unfolding case against Representative William J. Jefferson.

Democrats Battle Over a Safe Seat in Congress

Continuing off of the conversation we had recently regarding the congressional seat in the Venice area.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-harman24may24,1,4416212.story?coll=la-headlines-california

Jane Harman and her primary challenger, Marcy Winograd, go head to head over war, peace and the direction the party should take.

Could this be — hang on — an election fight for the soul of the Democratic Party, a spirited thrust by the antiwar movement into the backyard of Southern California's defense industry to define just what shade of blue is blue enough these days in confronting the prolonged conflict of Iraq?

Backing Away From Bush

Some Republican Candidates Avoid Ties With Unpopular President

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114834070897460047-88Zrg6WawJdzKIbMc0owMHwv92o_20070523.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

Democrats Must End Talk of Bush Impeachment

Wow, people at Fox News are saying the Democrats will win this November!!!


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,196549,00.html

APPROVAL RATINGS FOR ALL 100 U.S. SENATORS

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval060523Net.htm

Bush's Medicare deadline backed

David Dreier's stance on the Medicare prescription drug plan deadline:

http://www.sgvtribune.com/search/ci_3808292

Dreier gets message on bill

More about Dreier and immigration issues:

http://www.sgvtribune.com/search/ci_3835240

Dreier breaks with Bush on immigration

An article about David Dreier's stance on illegal immigration:

http://www.sgvtribune.com/search/ci_3831065

The New Temptation Of Democrats

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/22/AR2006052201154.html

Winning by Losing or Losing by Winning in November

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/05/winning_by_losing_or_losing_by.html

Schumer gets ready for his next closeup

Good article on the Schumer battle plan for the Senate

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/420080p-354680c.html

Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/19/AR2006051901921.html

Elections Are Crux Of GOP's Strategy

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/21/AR2006052101096.html

Taking Back the White House: How the Democrats can do it.

From Slate Magazine: in other magazines -- Summaries of what's in Time, Newsweek, etc.

The New Yorker, May 29: The cover piece asks how Democrats can win back the White House.They can start by getting off their high horses and embracing patriotism, Jeffrey Goldberg finds.

Weekly Standard, May 29: According to an editorial by Fred Barnes, one surefire way for congressional Republicans to flub the midterm elections is to fail to pass an immigration bill.

New Republic, May 29: An editorial carps on congressional Republicans for coddling the Bush administration through a lack of government oversight.

Gay-marriage ban a no-win deal for Bush

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/14636649.htm

A bid to sidestep Electoral College

A bid to sidestep Electoral College
States would agree to cast all their electoral votes for the winner of the popular balloting nationwide.

By Jim Sanders -- Bee Capitol Bureau
Published 2:15 am PDT Monday, May 22, 2006
Six years after Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the presidency to Republican George W. Bush, there's a new move afoot in the California Legislature and other states to ensure that such things never happen again. The linchpin is a proposed "interstate compact," designed to guarantee that presidents will be selected by popular vote, without amending the U.S. Constitution or eliminating the Electoral College.
OAS_AD('Button20');

Assemblyman Tom Umberg, a Santa Ana Democrat who chairs the Assembly Election and Redistricting Committee, said the basic premise is understandable even to children. "When you're in first grade, if the person who got the second-most votes became class leader, the kids would recognize that this is not a fair system," he said. Umberg's Assembly Bill 2948, proposing such a compact, passed the Assembly's elections and appropriations committees on party-line votes, with Republicans opposed. We have a system that's worked effectively for more than 200 years," said Sal Russo, a GOP political consultant. "We probably should be very hesitant to change that."
John Koza, an official of National Popular Vote, which is pushing the proposal, said sentiment has not split along party lines in other states.
"I don't think anyone can convincingly put their finger on any partisan advantage," said Koza, a consulting professor at Stanford University. Though Republicans disproportionately benefited from the Electoral College in 2000, when Bush edged Gore despite getting 544,000 fewer votes, Democrats nearly turned the tables four years later. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry would have defeated Bush - despite 3 million fewer votes nationwide - if he had garnered Ohio's electoral votes by swaying 60,000 more GOP voters to his side. AB 2948 would commit California to a compact in which each participating state would cast all its electoral votes for the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes nationwide. The compact would not become effective until its member states control a majority of the Electoral College's 538 votes. The binding commitment would be enforceable by the U.S. Supreme Court, Umberg said. Any state could become a member of the compact, and any state could withdraw from the group - except during the final six months of a president's term. Besides California, legislation to create a compact was introduced this year in Colorado, Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana.
Proponents are pushing to have similar bills in all 50 states next year.
America's founding fathers created the current system, in which each state determines how its votes will be cast in the Electoral College, which ultimately elects the president.
California and 47 other states have adopted a "winner-take-all" approach, committing their entire slate of electors to the candidate who receives the most votes statewide.
Nebraska and Maine allocate most of their electoral votes by congressional district.
Umberg argues that California is at a severe disadvantage under the "winner-take-all" system because its lopsided voter registration persuades presidential candidates from both parties to spend their campaign time - and money - in "battleground" states.
California is considered safely Democratic, with the GOP trailing by 8 percentage points in voter registration.
In 2004, for example, Kerry lost the national vote but won by 10 percentage points in California. Supporters of AB 2948 claim it will revitalize elections and increase turnout. In states with tilted voter registration, such as California, votes cast by the minority party will gain in importance as part of a much larger pool nationwide, proponents said. "A voter in Rhode Island is as important as a voter in California, I think that's the key," said Theis Finlev of Common Cause, which supports AB 2948. California, the nation's most populous state, suddenly would take center stage, Umberg said. Rather than focus largely on key issues in smaller battleground states, presidential candidates would have to court Californians, too. "You couldn't afford to have somebody else carry the state by 6 million votes," Umberg said. Assemblyman Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, said an interstate compact would remove the stigma attached to a ballot-box loser who becomes president. "I think Americans are ready for a change," he said of AB 2948. Under the proposed compact, however, a state could find itself compelled to cast all its electoral votes to a presidential candidate resoundingly rejected by its own residents. Critics of AB 2948 say the Electoral College plays an important role in forcing presidents to build geographic coalitions.
Assemblyman Michael Villines, R-Clovis, said sidestepping the Electoral College would make have-nots of small states and rural areas. "The small guy gets a voice only through the Electoral College process," Villines said. California and nine other states account for more than 50 percent of the nation's population. Wayne Johnson, a GOP consultant, said a compact would alter campaign strategy. "What you'd do is go into the heavily Republican areas or heavily Democratic areas and spend your money to run up the score in popular vote," he said. "You'd leave out whole sections of the country." Supporters and opponents disagree on how a compact would affect all sorts of political issues, such as whether it would incite vote-count fights in numerous states or reduce the ballot-box leverage of racial and ethnic groups. "This is the kind of scheme that would keep political junkies happily awake at night, thinking of ways it could go wrong," said Jack Pitney, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College. But Umberg said the biggest hurdle for AB 2948 may be a reluctance by lawmakers to change fundamental political tenets. "They're (legislators) by virtue of how the process worked in the past," he said.

Congressional challengers call for earmark reforms

As lawmakers, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Nick Lampson felt pressure to bring home federal money to constituents, but recent controversy over earmarks and attempts at reform have forced them to rethink the matter as candidates.

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/051806_earmarks.html

Conservative traditions in Monrovia

In the 26th district...

This is actually a fairly lame article -- no hard data whatsoever, just the impressions of various politicians...

http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/news/ci_3848519

MONROVIA - Current and former city officials agree that while big changes here in the past 120 years include the size of the city, the median home price and the growing Latino population, the political map of Monrovia has not changed much.
The city, which was founded in 1886 and incorporated the following year, has grown to twice its physical size since the 1880s, said city historian and treasurer Steve Baker. The value of homes in the city has quadrupled since the 1970s. Monrovia has seen a spike in the number of Latino residents, especially in the last two decades.
But most say the politics of the city remain fairly conservative.

In House Races, More G.O.P. Seats Look Vulnerable

James Votruba, left, president of Northern Kentucky University, and President Bush appearing Friday with Representative Geoff Davis, a Republican of Kentucky, who once seemed headed for an easy victory. But he and others in the party now appear to be facing stronger challenges.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/washington/21house.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

More GOP Seats in Doubt

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12878404/

House Divided: Pases Ethics and Lobbying Bill

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12616004/

David Dreier and his straight hypocrisy

http://www.laweekly.com/news/news/the-outing/1322/

Republicans Pin Hopes on Black Candidates

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Black-Republicans.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
BOWIE, Md. (AP) -- Hope springs eternal when black Republicans seek higher office, yet often the first question that hits them is what are they doing in the GOP. This election year, a man named Steele in Maryland and a former football star named Swann in Pennsylvania are among a small but determined number of black candidates trying to win one for the Republicans despite the Democratic Party's near lock on the black vote.

2 GOP seats Unusually Competitive

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-calcongress20may20,1,2646934.story?coll=la-headlines-california
Ties to the Abramoff scandal have opened Reps. Doolittle and Pombo to attack. But they're well-defended among constituents.

Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt

Vulnerability Seen In Unusual Places

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/19/AR2006051901921.html

Dreier Votes to Approve Increase in Veteran’s Funding

Dreier Votes to Approve Increase in Veteran’s Funding

May 19, 2006
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, voted today to approve a historic increase in funding for America’s veterans, as well as funding for military and veterans facilities worldwide.The Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2007, H.R. 5385, was approved with strong bipartisan support, 395-0.
"Our nation’s military families and veterans deserve the best health care and the best facilities we can possibly provide," Dreier said. "This bill demonstrates an unprecedented level of support for veterans' medical services, housing and other needs that are critical to those who serve our nation in uniform. They and their families have earned more than this nation’s gratitude and respect."
For the first time ever, this funding bill uses the Veterans Service Organizations Independent Budget as its baseline for setting funding levels for veterans medical services. This shows the Congress’s dedication to bringing the community of millions of veterans into the decision-making process that affects their daily lives.
Specifically, the legislation provides a $2.6 billion increase over the previous year’s funding level, ensuring the increase in veterans returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan have their health care needs fully addressed. It also includes funding for ten new community-based outpatient clinics, preferred by veterans for the more convenient care they provide. Additionally, the bill provides $4 billion for family housing construction and operations to ensure that military families have the most up-to-date housing options. Finally, the bill increases the Defense Health Program budget by $1 billion to $21 billion to ensure that active duty military personnel receive the care they need to maintain readiness.
http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr05182006.htm

Dreier: English only

Dreier Co-Sponsors Resolution Calling for National Anthem To Be Sung In English
May 12, 2006
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, earlier this week called for the national anthem to be sung in English. Dreier also announced that he supports and is a co-sponsor of H.Res. 793, which affirms that statements of national unity, including the national anthem, should be recited or sung in English. In remarks delivered on the House floor, Dreier said:
"Americans hail from many different backgrounds, but we are united by our freedoms, our democratic government, and our language. It goes without saying that the Star Spangled Banner should be sung in English.
"The Spanish-language anthem, to me, is nothing but a cynical attempt to divide our country during the debate on this most vigorous and divisive issue of immigration and illegal immigration. It will not distract from the critical task at hand: securing our borders.
"I am committed to enforcing our immigration laws and effectively reforming our immigration system without providing amnesty. And I believe that all of our colleagues should join in co-sponsoring the legislation offered by our colleague from Kansas, Mr. Ryan, H. Res. 793, which will underscore the fact that the Star Spangled Banner should be sung in English." The resolution states: "While millions of Americans speak or study additional languages, English is their common language."
http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr051206.htm

Dreier at work, on the look out for his constituents

http://dreier.house.gov/releases/pr051806.htm
Dreier Applauds Passage of Fiscally Responsible Interior Appropriations Bill

May 18, 2006
WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman David Dreier (R-San Dimas,CA), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, voted last night to fund environmental and natural resource programs, including a critical water program in Arcadia and Sierra Madre, while at the same time decrease spending compared to last year’s bil. H.R. 5386, the Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act of 2007, was approved by a bipartisan vote of 293-128.
"This bill protects our natural resources and improves the quality of our water supply, two top priorities for the Foothills. We have also eliminated programs that have not worked and cut spending compared to last year," said Dreier. "House Republicans take our responsibility to rein-in government spending just as seriously as we in California take our duty to be stewards of the land. This bill accomplishes both without sacrificing either."
The Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act of 2007 funds three federal departments and numerous agencies and bureaus, including the Forest Service, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Environmental Protection Agency. The legislation appropriates a total of $25.9 billion, which is $145 million below the fiscal year 2006 enacted level.
H.R. 5386 provides $1 million for the ongoing Arcadia and Sierra Madre Joint Water Infrastructure Restoration Program. This program will improve the water infrastructure that both cities reply upon, which is at risk due to deterioration from age and the potential impact from a major seismic event in the region. The legislation also protects the Angeles and San Bernardino National Forests by funding the National Fire Plan. The plan calls for extinguishing fires before they become large and expensive; reducing wildfire risk with active management to reduce hazardous fuels; and funding vital forest health and pest management activities. H.R. 5386 also helps address long-term solutions to high energy prices by supporting energy programs authorized by the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
"This bill is fiscally responsible, environmentally sound and it has a direct, positive impact on the Foothills."

Senate sends mixed signal on English

Senate Sends Mixed Signals on English
Senate Sends Mixed Signals on Whether to Make English the National Language
By DAVID ESPO
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON - The Senate voted Thursday to make English the national language of the United States. Sort of.
Moments after the 63-34 vote, it decided to call the mother tongue a "common and unifying language."
"You can't have it both ways," warned Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., a fan of "national" but not "common and unifying." Two dozen senators disagreed and voted for both as the Senate lumbered toward an expected vote next week on a controversial immigration bill.
The debate occurred as President Bush traveled to Yuma, Ariz., to dramatize his commitment to curbing illegal immigration. At the same time, the White House sent Congress a formal request for $1.9 billion to cover the costs of steps he announced earlier in the week, including the deployment of up to 6,000 National Guard troops to states along the Mexican border.
Bush generally favors the outlines of the Senate measure, a bill that calls for great enforcement, a new guest worker program and an eventual opportunity at citizenship for most of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the country illegally.
Inhofe led the attempt to declare English the national language, a campaign he said began more than a century ago. The Oklahoma Republican quoted President Theodore Roosevelt as having said that among other things, those living in the United States "must also learn one language and that language is English."
"If you've got any rights now you've still got them under this amendment" added Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.
Democrats disputed that, and said the proposal would curtail rights established by an executive order President Clinton issued to extend language assistance to individuals not proficient in English.
Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada went further. "I really believe this amendment is racist. I think it's directed basically to people who speak Spanish."
"It's ridiculous," Inhofe replied. "I don't think people will buy into it."
The Senate didn't, including 11 Democrats who joined 53 Republicans to support the proposal.
Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., advanced the alternative that declared English to be a "common and unifying language."
It passed, 58-39, leaving the outcome of the symbolic debate uncertain.
For the third straight day, a bipartisan coalition of lawmakers supporting the immigration measure demonstrated their overall command of the Senate floor.
After a stumble on Wednesday night when the Senate voted to deny temporary workers the ability to petition for citizenship on their own the bill's supporters won a reversal that said they could, as long as the federal government certifies American workers are unavailable to fill their jobs. The provision applies to workers with temporary visas in the country for four years. The vote was 56-43.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said the original provision was designed to protect American workers and the replacement would "put American workers in the back seat and foreign workers ... in the front seat."
But Sen. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said, "I think there is a higher value in not having the immigrant subject to the control of the employer where there may be coercion and pressure."
The Senate also voted 64-32 to levy a $750 fee on illegal immigrants who apply for citizenship, and $100 for each dependent. Cornyn, who sponsored the proposal, said the proceeds would be used to reimburse state and local governments, hospitals and other institutions that provide health, education and other services to illegal immigrants.
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Copyright © 2006 ABC News Internet Ventures

Westly Stumbles in the Mud

This article in the LA Times just demostrates, how running candidates will do what it takes to assure their election success, even if it requires contradicting themselves. Hence, Steve Westly assured as the article comments that he would not attack his opponents, yet as many I'm pretty sure have notice, he has on a TV ad. Of course Westly tries to provide a legitimate reason for running an ad attacking his opponet Phil Angelides by suggesting that"Westly [was the] first to air negative TV ad." Steve Westly further provides reason why he decided to run an attack ad, and why the possibility of more may continue found at http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-westly18may18,1,484229.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

The Speaker's Wrath

May 18, 2006
By Robert Novak
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, a 64-year-old ex-high school wrestling coach, ordinarily is not a shouter. But according to Capitol Hill sources, he engaged in a high decibel rant last week when he met with Vice President Dick Cheney. The speaker was enraged by the sacking of his friend and former colleague, Porter Goss.
Hastert was so vituperative that a private session with President George W. Bush in the living quarters of the White House was scheduled immediately (although Hastert aides said the meeting had been planned previously). The speaker toned down his volume on the hallowed ground and did more listening than talking. But the president did not slake Hastert's wrath over the abrupt sacking of Goss as CIA director.
That wrath reflects the feeling in the House Republican cloakroom that Goss, who gave up a safe congressional seat from Florida for a thankless cleanup mission at the CIA, is being made a scapegoat for the government's intelligence mess. But Hastert's discontent goes beyond the CIA. The GOP mood on Capitol Hill, particularly the House, is poisonous. With pessimism rising over a contemplated loss of their majority in the 2006 elections, Republican lawmakers blame their parlous condition on Bush's performance. Cheney was on the Hill last week to receive the Distinguished Service Award, along with three other former House members: Lindy Boggs, Father Robert Drinan and Goss. To Hastert and his Republican colleagues, this was inadequate compensation for Goss' shabby treatment.
Hastert had urged Goss to postpone his retirement and seek another term in Congress, and Bush then talked Goss into taking on the arduous mission of bringing the CIA under presidential control. Two days before Goss was shown the door, Hastert met with John Negroponte. The director of national intelligence gave the speaker no hint that Hastert's friend at the CIA was being fired.
Hastert, who served with Cheney in the House for two years (1987-88), let the vice president have it in their private meeting. He said he trusted his close friend Goss, who had performed well at the nasty job of cleaning out an agency filled with critics of the president and his policies. The speaker made clear he considered the crude treatment of Goss a personal insult.
Cheney took this so seriously that he quickly scheduled a White House meeting of Bush and Hastert (that did not appear on public schedules of either the president or the speaker). With the vice president sitting in, Bush expressed his high regard for Goss. Hastert had criticized the choice of Gen. Michael Hayden as Goss' successor, and Bush urged the speaker to support the nominee.
It was not merely that Hastert and other House Republicans objected to the sacking of Goss. They resented the demeaning way it was performed. In particular, it could be inferred there was some scandalous reason for Goss' departure. It has been incorrectly tied to published reports of Dusty Foggo, Goss' handpicked No. 3 CIA official, being under investigation in the Duke Cunningham bribery and corruption scandal.
Critics of Goss claim that, as a legislator, he was a poor administrator (the complaint that habitually follows a high-profile sacking in government). But they do not appreciate the anger Bush generated among Goss' friends in Congress. One senior House Republican, asking that his name not be used, told me: "Porter was unceremoniously kicked in the butt. He was treated with contempt."
Correctly or not, the treatment of Goss has caused speculation in Congress that Bush is making a peace offering to his critics at Langley. A president waging a global war against terror can hardly function with an intelligence agency whose employees make off-the-record speeches against his policies, contribute to his political opponents and leak secrets to the news media. Was getting rid of Goss the equivalent of a white flag of surrender?
Such interpretations suggest that there is basically non-communication between Bush and fellow Republicans in Congress. The president had to summon the speaker of the House to calm him down because he had given him no heads-up earlier. More than difficulties at the CIA need to be resolved as the GOP lurches toward the dreaded mid-term elections.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/05/the_speakers_wrath.html

Would Pelosi be able to lead a majority?

Centrist-conservative Democrats could hold the balance of power

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12823166/from/RS.4/

Bush signs tax cut extensions into law

www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-05-17-bush-tax-cuts_x.htm

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush signed a $70 billion tax-cut bill on Wednesday that Republicans hope will help them with voters as they head into the fall elections with worries about retaining control of Congress.

The Congressional Elections of 2006

The Congressional Elections of 2006

The Washington Times
This skirmish goes to Corporate Wing
By Wesley Pruden

May 16, 2006 The war continues between the Conservative Republicans, whose hearts skip beats at the sight of Old Glory, and the Corporate Republicans, who regard America as a good place to do business and not necessarily something to get emotional about on the Fourth of July. The greedy guys are winning. And why not? The commander who could be marching with the conservative regiments he counts on on Election Day is missing in action.

From the kausfiles: An impasse on immigration might be a better deal.

Discussion on Bush's Immigration Policy